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Premier League 2026-27 forecast
Arsenal start as title favorites at 77.7%, ahead of Man City (12.9%). Hull, Ipswich, Coventry carry the highest relegation risk. 5,000 simulated seasons; match-by-match picks lock onto the public record from August.
Last updated Jul 21, 2026 · ClubElo ratings → Dixon-Coles goals → 5,000 season simulations
| # | Club | Trend | Wins league | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 77.7% | 99.0% | — | |
| 2 | Man City | 12.9% | 82.1% | — | |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 3.1% | 50.6% | — | |
| 4 | Man United | 2.8% | 46.9% | — | |
| 5 | Liverpool | 2.2% | 45.3% | — | |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 0.5% | 20.6% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | Brighton | 0.2% | 10.5% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | Newcastle | 0.1% | 9.3% | 0.8% | |
| 9 | Brentford | 0.2% | 8.6% | 1.1% | |
| 10 | Chelsea | 0.1% | 8.0% | 1.3% | |
| 11 | Forest | — | 5.3% | 1.6% | |
| 12 | Fulham | — | 3.9% | 2.4% | |
| 13 | Everton | — | 3.4% | 3.0% | |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | — | 2.6% | 2.9% | |
| 15 | Leeds | — | 2.4% | 3.8% | |
| 16 | Tottenham | — | 1.3% | 7.0% | |
| 17 | Sunderland | — | 0.2% | 19.9% | |
| 18 | Coventry | — | — | 72.5% | |
| 19 | Ipswich | — | — | 82.9% | |
| 20 | Hull | — | — | >99% |
Man United
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Brighton
Newcastle
Fulham
Everton
Crystal Palace
Leeds
Tottenham
Sunderland
Coventry
Ipswich
HullCell shading ∝ probability. Trend = Elo since 2020. xPts = mean points across simulations. Sources: ClubElo (ratings) · The Open Model (simulation). Method →
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Manchester City
Brentford
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
ArsenalNotes
Chance of finishing first. 2 clubs currently have at least a 5% chance of winning the league. Arsenal leads at 77.7%because its recent-results strength score is higher than Man City's. Early estimates can move quickly once the season starts.
Other important places. The closest races to finish in the top four: Aston Villa, Man United, Liverpool. Clubs with an uncertain chance of dropping to a lower division: .
From August. This page will add a home-win, draw and away-win percentage before each match. The club model will build its own results history. The project's separate World Cup model already has a public past-results page.