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Serie A 2026-27 forecast

Inter start as title favorites at 69.1%, ahead of Roma (9.3%). Monza, Frosinone, Lecce carry the highest relegation risk. 5,000 simulated seasons; match-by-match picks lock onto the public record from August.

Last updated Jul 21, 2026 · ClubElo ratings → Dixon-Coles goals → 5,000 season simulations

#	Club	Rating	Proj. pts	Wins league	Top 4	Relegated
1	Inter	1888.6	80	69.1%	96.6%	—
2	Roma	1793.5	68	9.3%	62.4%	—
3	Napoli	1780.3	66	6.1%	52.6%	—
4	Juventus	1772.3	65	5.5%	45.8%	—
5	Atalanta	1763.5	64	3.2%	40.7%	—
6	Como	1760	63	3.4%	38.5%	0.1%
7	Milan	1750	62	2.3%	32.1%	0.1%
8	Lazio	1703.2	56	0.6%	11.8%	1.2%
9	Bologna	1701.3	56	0.3%	11.1%	1.2%
10	Fiorentina	1670.2	51	0.2%	4.2%	4.0%
11	Udinese	1645.9	48	—	1.6%	8.0%
12	Torino	1624.1	45	—	0.5%	14.2%
13	Sassuolo	1622	45	—	0.8%	15.7%
14	Genoa	1618.2	45	—	0.4%	17.8%
15	Parma	1599.9	42	—	0.4%	25.3%
16	Venezia	1598.8	42	—	0.2%	27.6%
17	Cagliari	1594.3	42	—	0.2%	28.6%
18	Lecce	1568	38	—	—	46.8%
19	Frosinone	1564.7	38	—	—	47.1%
20	Monza	1544	35	—	—	62.0%

Cell shading ∝ probability. Trend = Elo since 2020. xPts = mean points across simulations. Sources: ClubElo (ratings) · The Open Model (simulation). Method →

Players to watch

2025-26 top scorers · API-Football

Lautaro Martínez

Inter

17 goals · 6 assists

T. Douvikas

Como

14 goals · 1 assists

D. Malen

AS Roma

14 goals · 2 assists

M. Thuram

Inter

13 goals · 6 assists

N. Paz

Como

12 goals · 6 assists

R. Højlund

Napoli

12 goals · 5 assists

Notes

Chance of finishing first. 4 clubs currently have at least a 5% chance of winning the league. Inter leads at 69.1%because its recent-results strength score is higher than Roma's. Early estimates can move quickly once the season starts.

Other important places. The closest races to finish in the top four: Napoli, Juventus, Atalanta. Clubs with an uncertain chance of dropping to a lower division: Parma, Venezia, Cagliari.

From August. This page will add a home-win, draw and away-win percentage before each match. The club model will build its own results history. The project's separate World Cup model already has a public past-results page.