Leeds

Premier League · forecast 15th of 20 · updated Jul 21, 2026

Elo 1797.4 · title — · top 4 2.4% · relegation 3.8% · expected points 49 — 5,000 simulated seasons

Elo rating since 2020range 1567–1811 · 788 rating periods · source: ClubElo

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2026-27 fixtures · model odds

2026-27 squad · API-Football

D. Calvert-Lewin

Attacker · #9 · 28y

W. Gnonto

Attacker · #29 · 22y

L. Nmecha

Attacker · #14 · 27y

B. Aaronson

Midfielder · #11 · 25y

F. Buonanotte

Midfielder · #40 · 21y

K. Darlow

Goalkeeper · #26 · 35y

Opponent	Elo	Win at home	Draw	Win away	xG (home)
Arsenal	2063.8	14.4%	24.0%	7.8%	0.85–1.93
Man City	1970.9	22.6%	27.0%	14.1%	1.08–1.70
Aston Villa	1921	27.6%	27.9%	18.2%	1.20–1.58
Man United	1915.3	28.2%	28.0%	18.7%	1.22–1.56
Liverpool	1910.8	28.6%	28.1%	19.1%	1.23–1.55
Bournemouth	1872	32.8%	28.4%	22.7%	1.33–1.46
Brighton	1842	36.2%	28.5%	25.7%	1.40–1.38
Newcastle	1837.5	36.7%	28.5%	26.1%	1.41–1.37
Brentford	1836.6	36.8%	28.5%	26.2%	1.41–1.37
Chelsea	1831.1	37.5%	28.5%	26.8%	1.43–1.35
Forest	1822.2	38.5%	28.4%	27.7%	1.45–1.33
Fulham	1813.1	39.6%	28.4%	28.7%	1.47–1.31
Crystal Palace	1803.8	40.6%	28.3%	29.7%	1.50–1.28
Everton	1803.4	40.7%	28.3%	29.7%	1.50–1.28
Tottenham	1777.3	43.8%	28.0%	32.5%	1.56–1.22
Sunderland	1735.9	48.7%	27.3%	37.2%	1.67–1.12
Coventry	1661.5	57.7%	25.2%	46.0%	1.85–0.93
Ipswich	1640	60.2%	24.4%	48.5%	1.91–0.88
Hull	1532.9	72.4%	19.6%	61.4%	2.17–0.61

Elo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →