La Liga 2026-27 forecast
Barcelona start as title favorites at 61.7%, ahead of Real Madrid (34.2%). Depor, Malaga, Santander carry the highest relegation risk. 5,000 simulated seasons; match-by-match picks lock onto the public record from August.
Last updated Jul 21, 2026 · ClubElo ratings → Dixon-Coles goals → 5,000 season simulations
| # | Club | Trend | Wins league | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 61.7% | >99% | — | |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 34.2% | 99.4% | — | |
| 3 | Atletico | 3.5% | 82.6% | — | |
| 4 | Villarreal | 0.3% | 38.3% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | Betis | 0.2% | 29.7% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | Rayo Vallecano | — | 12.1% | 1.6% | |
| 7 | Celta | — | 9.8% | 2.5% | |
| 8 | Valencia | — | 8.6% | 2.3% | |
| 9 | Bilbao | — | 4.9% | 5.4% | |
| 10 | Sociedad | — | 4.1% | 6.1% | |
| 11 | Getafe | — | 3.4% | 7.9% | |
| 12 | Osasuna | — | 2.2% | 11.5% | |
| 13 | Levante | — | 1.4% | 14.3% | |
| 14 | Alaves | — | 1.0% | 15.8% | |
| 15 | Espanyol | — | 1.0% | 17.8% | |
| 16 | Sevilla | — | 0.6% | 20.9% | |
| 17 | Elche | — | 0.8% | 21.5% | |
| 18 | Santander | — | — | 47.9% | |
| 19 | Malaga | — | — | 54.2% | |
| 20 | Depor | — | — | 69.7% |
Atletico
Villarreal
Betis
Rayo Vallecano
Celta
Valencia
Bilbao
Sociedad
Getafe
Levante
Alaves
Espanyol
Sevilla
Elche
Santander
Malaga
DeporCell shading ∝ probability. Trend = Elo since 2020. xPts = mean points across simulations. Sources: ClubElo (ratings) · The Open Model (simulation). Method →
Players to watch
2025-26 top scorers · API-Football
Real Madrid
Mallorca
Osasuna
Barcelona
Barcelona
Real MadridNotes
Chance of finishing first. 2 clubs currently have at least a 5% chance of winning the league. Barcelona leads at 61.7%because its recent-results strength score is higher than Real Madrid's. Early estimates can move quickly once the season starts.
Other important places. The closest races to finish in the top four: Villarreal, Betis. Clubs with an uncertain chance of dropping to a lower division: Sevilla, Elche, Santander.
From August. This page will add a home-win, draw and away-win percentage before each match. The club model will build its own results history. The project's separate World Cup model already has a public past-results page.