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Ligue 1 2026-27 forecast

Paris SG start as title favorites at 97.2%, ahead of Lens (1.0%). Le Mans, Troyes, Angers carry the highest relegation risk. 5,000 simulated seasons; match-by-match picks lock onto the public record from August.

Last updated Jul 21, 2026 · ClubElo ratings → Dixon-Coles goals → 5,000 season simulations

#	Club	Rating	Proj. pts	Wins league	Top 4	Relegated
1	Paris SG	1967.9	81	97.2%	>99%	—
2	Lens	1767	59	1.0%	63.6%	—
3	Lille	1743.7	56	0.7%	48.4%	0.2%
4	Lyon	1731.6	55	0.4%	40.7%	0.3%
5	Monaco	1717.5	53	0.2%	31.8%	0.5%
6	Marseille	1716.7	53	0.2%	32.1%	0.4%
7	Rennes	1716.1	53	0.2%	32.1%	0.6%
8	Strasbourg	1710.8	52	0.2%	28.0%	0.6%
9	Toulouse	1652.3	46	—	7.7%	5.3%
10	Lorient	1639.1	44	—	4.9%	6.7%
11	Paris FC	1629.3	43	—	3.4%	10.2%
12	Auxerre	1624.1	42	—	3.1%	11.0%
13	Brest	1620.8	42	—	2.6%	11.8%
14	Nice	1582.4	37	—	0.7%	28.1%
15	Le Havre	1580.1	37	—	0.5%	30.2%
16	Angers	1547.5	34	—	0.1%	48.6%
17	Troyes	1521.1	31	—	—	65.9%
18	Le Mans	1492.4	28	—	—	79.8%

Cell shading ∝ probability. Trend = Elo since 2020. xPts = mean points across simulations. Sources: ClubElo (ratings) · The Open Model (simulation). Method →

Players to watch

2025-26 top scorers · API-Football

E. Lepaul

Rennes

20 goals · 5 assists

M. Greenwood

Marseille

16 goals · 7 assists

J. Panichelli

Strasbourg

16 goals · 1 assists

F. Balogun

Monaco

13 goals · 4 assists

O. Édouard

Lens

12 goals · 3 assists

W. Saïd

Lens

12 goals · 2 assists

Notes

Chance of finishing first. 1 clubs currently have at least a 5% chance of winning the league. Paris SG leads at 97.2%because its recent-results strength score is higher than Lens's. Early estimates can move quickly once the season starts.

Other important places. The closest races to finish in the top four: Lille, Lyon, Monaco. Clubs with an uncertain chance of dropping to a lower division: Nice, Le Havre, Angers.

From August. This page will add a home-win, draw and away-win percentage before each match. The club model will build its own results history. The project's separate World Cup model already has a public past-results page.