Arsenal

Premier League · forecast 1st of 20 · updated Jul 21, 2026

Elo 2063.8 · title 77.7% · top 4 99.0% · relegation — · expected points 83 — 5,000 simulated seasons

Elo rating since 2020range 1776–2070 · 593 rating periods · source: ClubElo

In the news

headlines link out · sources credited

2026-27 fixtures · model odds

2026-27 squad · API-Football

B. Bailey-Joseph

Attacker · #7 · 17y

Gabriel Jesus

Attacker · #9 · 28y

V. Gyökeres

Attacker · #14 · 27y

M. Dowman

Midfielder · #56 · 16y

E. Eze

Midfielder · #10 · 27y

Kepa

Goalkeeper · #13 · 31y

Opponent	Elo	Win at home	Draw	Win away	xG (home)
Man City	1970.9	52.5%	26.5%	40.9%	1.74–1.04
Aston Villa	1921	58.5%	25.0%	46.8%	1.87–0.91
Man United	1915.3	59.2%	24.8%	47.5%	1.88–0.90
Liverpool	1910.8	59.7%	24.6%	48.0%	1.90–0.89
Bournemouth	1872	64.3%	23.0%	52.7%	1.99–0.79
Brighton	1842	67.7%	21.7%	56.3%	2.07–0.71
Newcastle	1837.5	68.2%	21.5%	56.8%	2.08–0.70
Brentford	1836.6	68.3%	21.5%	56.9%	2.08–0.70
Chelsea	1831.1	68.9%	21.2%	57.6%	2.09–0.69
Forest	1822.2	69.9%	20.8%	58.7%	2.12–0.66
Fulham	1813.1	70.9%	20.3%	59.7%	2.14–0.64
Crystal Palace	1803.8	72.0%	19.9%	60.8%	2.16–0.62
Everton	1803.4	72.0%	19.9%	60.9%	2.16–0.62
Leeds	1797.4	72.7%	19.6%	61.6%	2.18–0.60
Tottenham	1777.3	74.8%	18.5%	63.9%	2.23–0.55
Sunderland	1735.9	79.0%	16.3%	68.7%	2.33–0.45
Coventry	1661.5	85.1%	12.6%	76.7%	2.52–0.30
Ipswich	1640	85.7%	12.1%	78.9%	2.57–0.30
Hull	1532.9	88.4%	9.9%	85.9%	2.84–0.30

Elo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →