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Man United
Premier League · forecast 4th of 20 · updated Jul 21, 2026
Elo 1915.3 · title 2.8% · top 4 46.9% · relegation — · expected points 65 — 5,000 simulated seasons
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2026-27, opponent by opponent
Full Premier League table →| Opponent | Elo | Win at home | Draw | Win away | xG (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 2063.8 | 25.0% | 27.5% | 16.1% | 1.14–1.64 |
| Man City | 1970.9 | 35.0% | 28.5% | 24.6% | 1.37–1.41 |
| Aston Villa | 1921 | 40.7% | 28.3% | 29.7% | 1.50–1.28 |
| Liverpool | 1910.8 | 41.9% | 28.2% | 30.8% | 1.52–1.26 |
| Bournemouth | 1872 | 46.6% | 27.7% | 35.1% | 1.62–1.16 |
| Brighton | 1842 | 50.2% | 27.0% | 38.6% | 1.70–1.09 |
| Newcastle | 1837.5 | 50.7% | 26.9% | 39.1% | 1.71–1.07 |
| Brentford | 1836.6 | 50.8% | 26.9% | 39.2% | 1.71–1.07 |
| Chelsea | 1831.1 | 51.5% | 26.8% | 39.8% | 1.72–1.06 |
| Forest | 1822.2 | 52.5% | 26.5% | 40.9% | 1.75–1.04 |
| Fulham | 1813.1 | 53.6% | 26.3% | 42.0% | 1.77–1.01 |
| Crystal Palace | 1803.8 | 54.8% | 26.0% | 43.1% | 1.79–0.99 |
| Everton | 1803.4 | 54.8% | 26.0% | 43.1% | 1.79–0.99 |
| Leeds | 1797.4 | 55.5% | 25.8% | 43.8% | 1.81–0.97 |
| Tottenham | 1777.3 | 57.9% | 25.1% | 46.2% | 1.86–0.92 |
| Sunderland | 1735.9 | 62.8% | 23.6% | 51.2% | 1.96–0.82 |
| Coventry | 1661.5 | 71.3% | 20.2% | 60.1% | 2.15–0.63 |
| Ipswich | 1640 | 73.6% | 19.1% | 62.6% | 2.20–0.58 |
| Hull | 1532.9 | 84.2% | 13.2% | 74.6% | 2.47–0.31 |
Arsenal
Man City
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Brighton
Newcastle
Brentford
Chelsea
Forest
Fulham
Crystal Palace
Leeds
Tottenham
Sunderland
CoventryElo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →