Past predictions and results
Before kickoff, we publish the chance of a home win, draw and away win, then mark the highest number as the most likely result. After full time, we record whether that top pick was correct. Right and wrong results both stay visible.
Club-season record begins in August 2026
Since the season hasn't kicked off, there are no club results to score yet. The pipeline is already running: every daily forecast snapshot locks the match probabilities that are public before kickoff, and finished results are scored against them automatically. This section fills in from the first completed match.
Where the model comes from — World Cup 2026
The same engine (Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo) ran the 2026 World Cup as an open-source model: 70 correct top picks from 102 completed matches, with every prediction published before kickoff. When it picked a team and the match was drawn, that counted as incorrect.
The honest backtest: walk-forward on 913 real internationals
Before the tournament, the model was tested the strict way — out-of-sample: each match predicted using only data available before kickoff, then scored against the actual result with proper scoring rules, not just accuracy. 763 matches evaluated (150 burn-in). Reproduce it yourself with node backtest.mjs in the repository, or download the raw evaluation data.
| Metric | Model | Baseline |
|---|---|---|
| Ranked Probability Score (↓) | 0.175 | coin-flip 0.241 |
| Brier score (↓) | 0.520 | coin-flip 0.667 |
| Log-loss (↓) | 0.886 | coin-flip 1.099 |
| Expected Calibration Error (↓) | 2.3% | <5% = well-calibrated |
| Correct result (win/draw/loss) | 61.9% | always-home 49.1% |
| When a clear favourite (p ≥ 50%) | 69.0% | 481 matches |
View as table
| Bin | Outcomes | Avg predicted | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 225 | 5.3% | 6.7% |
| 10–20% | 374 | 15.0% | 13.4% |
| 20–30% | 804 | 25.7% | 23.9% |
| 30–40% | 205 | 34.8% | 32.2% |
| 40–50% | 200 | 44.9% | 54.0% |
| 50–60% | 149 | 54.9% | 55.7% |
| 60–70% | 136 | 64.8% | 66.9% |
| 70–80% | 95 | 74.6% | 75.8% |
| 80–90% | 100 | 85.1% | 85.0% |
| 90–100% | 1 | 91.1% | 100.0% |
Past results show how the model behaved; they do not guarantee future accuracy. New to probability? Read the beginner's guide before judging a single result — a prediction can be reasonable and still be wrong.