Bundesliga 2026-27 forecast
Bayern start as title favorites at 94.0%, ahead of Dortmund (3.5%). Schalke, Elversberg, Paderborn carry the highest relegation risk. 5,000 simulated seasons; match-by-match picks lock onto the public record from August.
Last updated Jul 21, 2026 · ClubElo ratings → Dixon-Coles goals → 5,000 season simulations
| # | Club | Trend | Wins league | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern | 94.0% | >99% | — | |
| 2 | Dortmund | 3.5% | 84.3% | — | |
| 3 | Leverkusen | 1.6% | 70.5% | — | |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 0.4% | 45.9% | — | |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 0.3% | 45.0% | — | |
| 6 | Freiburg | 0.2% | 23.6% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | Hoffenheim | — | 12.8% | 1.3% | |
| 8 | Mainz | — | 6.3% | 2.8% | |
| 9 | Frankfurt | — | 5.0% | 3.8% | |
| 10 | Gladbach | — | 2.3% | 7.0% | |
| 11 | Augsburg | — | 1.9% | 8.1% | |
| 12 | Union Berlin | — | 0.9% | 11.9% | |
| 13 | Werder | — | 0.6% | 16.5% | |
| 14 | Hamburg | — | 0.6% | 19.0% | |
| 15 | Koeln | — | 0.1% | 35.5% | |
| 16 | Paderborn | — | — | 62.3% | |
| 17 | Elversberg | — | — | 64.6% | |
| 18 | Schalke | — | — | 66.7% |
RB Leipzig
Freiburg
Hoffenheim
Mainz
Frankfurt
Gladbach
Augsburg
Union Berlin
Werder
Hamburg
Koeln
Paderborn
Elversberg
SchalkeCell shading ∝ probability. Trend = Elo since 2020. xPts = mean points across simulations. Sources: ClubElo (ratings) · The Open Model (simulation). Method →
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Bayern München
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayern München
Bayern MünchenNotes
Chance of finishing first. 1 clubs currently have at least a 5% chance of winning the league. Bayern leads at 94.0%because its recent-results strength score is higher than Dortmund's. Early estimates can move quickly once the season starts.
Other important places. The closest races to finish in the top four: Stuttgart, RB Leipzig, Freiburg. Clubs with an uncertain chance of dropping to a lower division: Koeln.
From August. This page will add a home-win, draw and away-win percentage before each match. The club model will build its own results history. The project's separate World Cup model already has a public past-results page.