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Aston Villa
Premier League · forecast 3rd of 20 · updated Jul 21, 2026
Elo 1921 · title 3.1% · top 4 50.6% · relegation — · expected points 66 — 5,000 simulated seasons
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2026-27 fixtures · model odds
Brighton
HullThe squad's spine
2026-27 squad · API-Football
T. Abraham
Alysson Edward
L. Bailey
R. Barkley
E. Buendía
M. Bizot
2026-27, opponent by opponent
Full Premier League table →| Opponent | Elo | Win at home | Draw | Win away | xG (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 2063.8 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 16.5% | 1.16–1.63 |
| Man City | 1970.9 | 35.6% | 28.5% | 25.1% | 1.39–1.39 |
| Man United | 1915.3 | 42.1% | 28.2% | 31.0% | 1.53–1.25 |
| Liverpool | 1910.8 | 42.6% | 28.1% | 31.5% | 1.54–1.24 |
| Bournemouth | 1872 | 47.2% | 27.5% | 35.8% | 1.64–1.15 |
| Brighton | 1842 | 50.8% | 26.9% | 39.2% | 1.71–1.07 |
| Newcastle | 1837.5 | 51.4% | 26.8% | 39.8% | 1.72–1.06 |
| Brentford | 1836.6 | 51.5% | 26.7% | 39.9% | 1.72–1.06 |
| Chelsea | 1831.1 | 52.2% | 26.6% | 40.5% | 1.74–1.04 |
| Forest | 1822.2 | 53.2% | 26.4% | 41.6% | 1.76–1.02 |
| Fulham | 1813.1 | 54.3% | 26.1% | 42.6% | 1.78–1.00 |
| Crystal Palace | 1803.8 | 55.4% | 25.8% | 43.7% | 1.81–0.98 |
| Everton | 1803.4 | 55.5% | 25.8% | 43.8% | 1.81–0.97 |
| Leeds | 1797.4 | 56.2% | 25.6% | 44.5% | 1.82–0.96 |
| Tottenham | 1777.3 | 58.6% | 24.9% | 46.9% | 1.87–0.91 |
| Sunderland | 1735.9 | 63.5% | 23.3% | 51.9% | 1.98–0.81 |
| Coventry | 1661.5 | 71.9% | 19.9% | 60.8% | 2.16–0.62 |
| Ipswich | 1640 | 74.2% | 18.8% | 63.3% | 2.21–0.57 |
| Hull | 1532.9 | 84.6% | 12.9% | 75.2% | 2.48–0.30 |
Man City
Man United
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Newcastle
Brentford
Chelsea
Forest
Fulham
Crystal Palace
Everton
Leeds
Tottenham
Sunderland
Coventry
IpswichElo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →