The model at the 2026 World Cup
Spain won the 2026 FIFA World Cup, beating Argentina 1–0 in the final. The same open-source engine that now runs The Open Model on club football forecast the whole tournament in the open — every pick published before kickoff, right and wrong kept on the record.
This page is the permanent home of the World Cup 2026 project, which previously lived at cup26matches.com. The engine — Elo ratings → Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson → Monte Carlo simulation — is the same one behind The Open Model's club-season forecasts. For the full accuracy record, calibration curve and the 913-international backtest, see the public track record; the model is open-source on GitHub.
Knockout stage — the model's call vs the result
| Round | Match | Result | Model's pick | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round of 16 | Paraguay v France | 0–1 | France 74% | ✓ |
| Round of 16 | Canada v Morocco | 0–3 | Morocco 52% | ✓ |
| Round of 16 | Brazil v Norway | 1–2 | Brazil 44% | ✗ |
| Round of 16 | Mexico v England | 2–3 | England 55% | ✓ |
| Round of 16 | Portugal v Spain | 0–1 | Spain 43% | ✓ |
| Round of 16 | USA v Belgium | 1–4 | Belgium 42% | ✓ |
| Round of 16 | Argentina v Egypt | 3–2 | Argentina 69% | ✓ |
| Round of 16 | Switzerland v Colombia | 0–0 | Colombia 43% | ✗ |
| Quarter-final | France v Morocco | 2–0 | France 52% | ✓ |
| Quarter-final | Spain v Belgium | 2–1 | Spain 51% | ✓ |
| Quarter-final | Norway v England | 1–2 | England 49% | ✓ |
| Quarter-final | Argentina v Switzerland | 3–1 | Argentina 55% | ✓ |
| Semi-final | France v Spain | 0–2 | Spain 36% | ✓ |
| Semi-final | England v Argentina | 1–2 | England 37% | ✗ |
| Match for third place | France v England | 4–6 | France 37% | ✗ |
| Final | Spain v Argentina | 1–0 | Spain 39% | ✓ |
Picks are the model's highest pre-match outcome at neutral venues; a knockout decided after a draw (extra time / penalties) counts the pick correct only if it named the side that advanced on the day. Full match-by-match data: backtest JSON.
Where the model runs now
The tournament is over, but the model isn't. It now forecasts the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 season, updated daily, under the same policy: every match predicted before kickoff and checked afterwards. The forecast data is free to reuse under CC BY 4.0.