Chelsea

Premier League · forecast 10th of 20 · updated Jul 21, 2026

Elo 1831.1 · title 0.1% · top 4 8.0% · relegation 1.3% · expected points 54 — 5,000 simulated seasons

Elo rating since 2020range 1757–1973 · 614 rating periods · source: ClubElo

In the news

headlines link out · sources credited

2026-27 fixtures · model odds

2026-27 squad · API-Football

L. Delap

Attacker · #9 · 22y

Estêvão

Attacker · #41 · 18y

A. Garnacho

Attacker · #49 · 21y

Andrey Santos

Midfielder · #17 · 21y

M. Caicedo

Midfielder · #25 · 24y

F. Jörgensen

Goalkeeper · #12 · 23y

Opponent	Elo	Win at home	Draw	Win away	xG (home)
Arsenal	2063.8	17.2%	25.2%	9.9%	0.93–1.85
Man City	1970.9	25.9%	27.7%	16.8%	1.16–1.62
Aston Villa	1921	31.2%	28.3%	21.2%	1.29–1.49
Man United	1915.3	31.8%	28.4%	21.8%	1.30–1.48
Liverpool	1910.8	32.3%	28.4%	22.2%	1.31–1.47
Bournemouth	1872	36.6%	28.5%	26.0%	1.41–1.37
Brighton	1842	40.1%	28.4%	29.2%	1.49–1.30
Newcastle	1837.5	40.6%	28.3%	29.7%	1.50–1.28
Brentford	1836.6	40.8%	28.3%	29.7%	1.50–1.28
Forest	1822.2	42.5%	28.2%	31.3%	1.53–1.25
Fulham	1813.1	43.5%	28.0%	32.3%	1.56–1.22
Crystal Palace	1803.8	44.6%	27.9%	33.3%	1.58–1.20
Everton	1803.4	44.7%	27.9%	33.4%	1.58–1.20
Leeds	1797.4	45.4%	27.8%	34.1%	1.60–1.18
Tottenham	1777.3	47.8%	27.5%	36.3%	1.65–1.13
Sunderland	1735.9	52.8%	26.5%	41.1%	1.75–1.03
Coventry	1661.5	61.7%	24.0%	50.0%	1.94–0.84
Ipswich	1640	64.2%	23.1%	52.6%	1.99–0.79
Hull	1532.9	76.0%	17.9%	65.3%	2.26–0.52

Elo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →