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About The Open Model
An independent football prediction project that explains what each number means and keeps both correct and incorrect past results visible.
Where this started
The Open Model began as an open-source World Cup 2026 prediction model. It compares team strength, estimates possible scores and turns those scores into a chance of each match result. Through 15 July 2026, its top pick was correct in 70 of 102 completed matches, and it identified all four semi-finalists before the quarter-finals. The tournament record is still being updated at cup26matches.com.
We then adapted the same type of score-probability framework for club football, using European club-strength ratings. This site covers Europe's top five leagues. The club model starts its own results history when the 2026–27 league season begins in August.
Who runs it
The Open Model is an independent project run by one developer. AI tools may help draft analysis, but match percentages come from the statistical model rather than a language model. Important factual claims are checked against current sources before publication. There is no bookmaker sponsor and no promise of guaranteed wins.
The rules we can't break
Predictions are published before kickoff. The public World Cup repository and archive provide a checkable publication trail for the international model.
Incorrect results stay visible. A result given a 70% chance still does not happen about three times in ten. When a top pick is wrong, it remains on the past-results page.
The method is explained. The beginner's guide explains the percentages, while the technical methodology documents the calculations. Current club outputs can be inspected in the data downloads.
Probabilities, not tips. We estimate what may happen. We do not sell picks or promise wins, and the site should not be treated as betting advice.
Data & sources
Team-strength ratings come from ClubElo. The current scheduled matches, squads and player images come from API-Football. Live scores and match events will come from Sportmonks when that feed is active. News headlines are attributed and linked to the original publisher. Check the relevant download or repository for its specific reuse terms.
Contact
The fastest routes: open an issue on GitHub or message the Telegram channel. Corrections are especially welcome — the whole point of this project is being checkable.