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Hamburg

Bundesliga · forecast 14th of 18 · updated Jul 21, 2026

Elo 1602.1 · title — · top 4 0.6% · relegation 19.0% · expected points 39 — 5,000 simulated seasons

Elo rating since 2020range 1507–1619 · 503 rating periods · source: ClubElo

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Opponent	Elo	Win at home	Draw	Win away	xG (home)
Bayern	2000.9	5.9%	17.7%	2.4%	0.52–2.27
Dortmund	1834.8	17.2%	25.2%	9.9%	0.93–1.85
Leverkusen	1804	19.9%	26.2%	12.0%	1.01–1.77
Stuttgart	1763.8	23.7%	27.2%	15.0%	1.11–1.67
RB Leipzig	1761.9	23.9%	27.3%	15.1%	1.11–1.67
Freiburg	1724.9	27.7%	27.9%	18.3%	1.21–1.58
Hoffenheim	1700.4	30.3%	28.2%	20.5%	1.27–1.51
Mainz	1671.9	33.4%	28.5%	23.2%	1.34–1.44
Frankfurt	1663.8	34.3%	28.5%	24.0%	1.36–1.42
Gladbach	1640.8	36.9%	28.5%	26.3%	1.42–1.37
Augsburg	1636.4	37.4%	28.5%	26.7%	1.43–1.35
Union Berlin	1619.4	39.4%	28.4%	28.5%	1.47–1.31
Werder	1606	40.9%	28.3%	29.9%	1.50–1.28
Koeln	1568.2	45.4%	27.8%	34.1%	1.60–1.18
Paderborn	1525.4	50.6%	26.9%	39.0%	1.70–1.08
Elversberg	1523.4	50.8%	26.9%	39.2%	1.71–1.07
Schalke	1519.7	51.3%	26.8%	39.6%	1.72–1.06

Elo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →