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Werder

Bundesliga · forecast 13th of 18 · updated Jul 21, 2026

Elo 1606 · title — · top 4 0.6% · relegation 16.5% · expected points 39 — 5,000 simulated seasons

Elo rating since 2020range 1543–1699 · 750 rating periods · source: ClubElo

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V. Boniface

Attacker · #44 · 25y

M. Grüll

Attacker · #17 · 27y

S. Mbangula

Attacker · #7 · 21y

Wesley Adeh

Midfielder · #34 · 18y

L. Bittencourt

Midfielder · #10 · 32y

M. Backhaus

Goalkeeper · #30 · 21y

Opponent	Elo	Win at home	Draw	Win away	xG (home)
Bayern	2000.9	6.1%	17.9%	2.4%	0.53–2.26
Dortmund	1834.8	17.5%	25.4%	10.1%	0.94–1.84
Leverkusen	1804	20.3%	26.3%	12.2%	1.02–1.76
Stuttgart	1763.8	24.1%	27.3%	15.3%	1.12–1.66
RB Leipzig	1761.9	24.3%	27.4%	15.5%	1.12–1.66
Freiburg	1724.9	28.1%	28.0%	18.6%	1.22–1.57
Hoffenheim	1700.4	30.7%	28.3%	20.8%	1.28–1.50
Mainz	1671.9	33.8%	28.5%	23.5%	1.35–1.43
Frankfurt	1663.8	34.7%	28.5%	24.3%	1.37–1.41
Gladbach	1640.8	37.3%	28.5%	26.7%	1.43–1.36
Augsburg	1636.4	37.9%	28.5%	27.1%	1.44–1.34
Union Berlin	1619.4	39.8%	28.4%	28.9%	1.48–1.30
Hamburg	1602.1	41.9%	28.2%	30.8%	1.52–1.26
Koeln	1568.2	45.9%	27.7%	34.5%	1.61–1.17
Paderborn	1525.4	51.0%	26.8%	39.4%	1.71–1.07
Elversberg	1523.4	51.3%	26.8%	39.7%	1.72–1.06
Schalke	1519.7	51.7%	26.7%	40.1%	1.73–1.05

Elo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →