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Paderborn

Bundesliga · forecast 16th of 18 · updated Jul 21, 2026

Elo 1525.4 · title — · top 4 — · relegation 62.3% · expected points 30 — 5,000 simulated seasons

Elo rating since 2020range 1470–1559 · 488 rating periods · source: ClubElo

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Opponent	Elo	Win at home	Draw	Win away	xG (home)
Bayern	2000.9	2.7%	13.5%	2.0%	0.32–2.46
Dortmund	1834.8	11.2%	22.2%	5.5%	0.74–2.04
Leverkusen	1804	13.5%	23.5%	7.1%	0.82–1.97
Stuttgart	1763.8	16.7%	25.0%	9.5%	0.92–1.86
RB Leipzig	1761.9	16.9%	25.1%	9.6%	0.92–1.86
Freiburg	1724.9	20.1%	26.3%	12.1%	1.01–1.77
Hoffenheim	1700.4	22.4%	26.9%	13.9%	1.08–1.71
Mainz	1671.9	25.2%	27.5%	16.2%	1.15–1.64
Frankfurt	1663.8	26.0%	27.7%	16.9%	1.17–1.61
Gladbach	1640.8	28.4%	28.1%	18.9%	1.22–1.56
Augsburg	1636.4	28.9%	28.1%	19.3%	1.24–1.55
Union Berlin	1619.4	30.7%	28.3%	20.9%	1.28–1.50
Werder	1606	32.2%	28.4%	22.1%	1.31–1.47
Hamburg	1602.1	32.6%	28.4%	22.5%	1.32–1.46
Koeln	1568.2	36.4%	28.5%	25.8%	1.41–1.38
Elversberg	1523.4	41.6%	28.2%	30.6%	1.52–1.26
Schalke	1519.7	42.1%	28.2%	31.0%	1.53–1.25

Elo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →