Hull vs Man United prediction — 2026-08-22

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Premier League · Regular Season - 1 · 2026-08-22 11:30 UTC · MKM Stadium, Hull

HullTeam strength 1532.9 · projected league finish #20

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Man United

single most likely score: 0–2 (15.3%)

Man UnitedTeam strength 1915.3 · projected league finish #4

Hull wins 6.8%Draw — neither team wins 18.6%Man United wins 74.6%Average simulated goals 0.56–2.22

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Man United have the highest number? Man United currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Hull playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.56for Hull and 2.22 for Man United. That makes Man United the highest of the three result estimates at 74.6%. For the full league season, Hull is projected to earn about 19points and Man United about 65. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Hull a 6.8% chance of beating Man United at home in the Premier League on 2026-08-22, with 18.6% for the draw and 74.6% for an away win. The single most likely score is 0–2 (15.3%), with average simulated goals of 0.56–2.22; the chance of both teams scoring is 39.1% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.2	12.8	15.3	11.4	6.3	4.3
1	2.5	8.7	8.5	6.3	3.5	2.4
2	1.0	2.1	2.4	1.8	1.0	0.7
3	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1
4	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
5+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

0–2 15.3%0–1 12.8%0–3 11.4%1–1 8.7%1–2 8.5%0–0 7.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		39.1%
2 or more total goals		77.6%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Hull avoids defeat		25.4%
Man United avoids defeat		93.2%
Hull allows no goals		10.8%
Man United allows no goals		57.3%