Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction — 2026-08-31

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Premier League · Regular Season - 2 · 2026-08-31 19:00 UTC · Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston VillaTeam strength 1921 · projected league finish #3

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Arsenal

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.2%)

ArsenalTeam strength 2063.8 · projected league finish #1

Aston Villa wins 25.6%Draw — neither team wins 27.6%Arsenal wins 46.8%Average simulated goals 1.16–1.63

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Arsenal have the highest number? Arsenal currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Aston Villa playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.16for Aston Villa and 1.63 for Arsenal. That makes Arsenal the highest of the three result estimates at 46.8%. For the full league season, Aston Villa is projected to earn about 66points and Arsenal about 83. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Aston Villa a 25.6% chance of beating Arsenal at home in the Premier League on 2026-08-31, with 27.6% for the draw and 46.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.2%), with average simulated goals of 1.16–1.63; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.5% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	8.6	8.2	4.4	1.8	0.8
1	5.6	13.2	9.5	5.1	2.1	0.9
2	4.1	6.7	5.5	3.0	1.2	0.5
3	1.6	2.6	2.1	1.1	0.5	0.2
4	0.5	0.7	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.1
5+	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.2%1–2 9.5%0–1 8.6%0–2 8.2%0–0 7.7%2–1 6.7%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		56.5%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Aston Villa avoids defeat		53.2%
Arsenal avoids defeat		74.4%
Aston Villa allows no goals		19.7%
Arsenal allows no goals		31.5%