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Ligue 1 · forecast 2nd of 18 · updated Jul 21, 2026
Elo 1767 · title 1.0% · top 4 63.6% · relegation — · expected points 59 — 5,000 simulated seasons
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2026-27 fixtures · model odds
Strasbourg
The squad's spine
2026-27 squad · API-Football
A. Bermont
O. Édouard
R. Fofana
A. Bulatović
A. Haidara
M. Gorgelin
2026-27, opponent by opponent
Full Ligue 1 table →| Opponent | Elo | Win at home | Draw | Win away | xG (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris SG | 1967.9 | 20.0% | 26.2% | 12.0% | 1.01–1.77 |
| Lille | 1743.7 | 44.2% | 28.0% | 32.9% | 1.57–1.21 |
| Lyon | 1731.6 | 45.6% | 27.8% | 34.2% | 1.60–1.18 |
| Monaco | 1717.5 | 47.3% | 27.5% | 35.8% | 1.64–1.15 |
| Marseille | 1716.7 | 47.4% | 27.5% | 35.9% | 1.64–1.14 |
| Rennes | 1716.1 | 47.5% | 27.5% | 36.0% | 1.64–1.14 |
| Strasbourg | 1710.8 | 48.1% | 27.4% | 36.6% | 1.65–1.13 |
| Toulouse | 1652.3 | 55.1% | 25.9% | 43.4% | 1.80–0.98 |
| Lorient | 1639.1 | 56.7% | 25.5% | 45.0% | 1.83–0.95 |
| Paris FC | 1629.3 | 57.9% | 25.1% | 46.2% | 1.86–0.92 |
| Auxerre | 1624.1 | 58.5% | 25.0% | 46.8% | 1.87–0.91 |
| Brest | 1620.8 | 58.9% | 24.8% | 47.2% | 1.88–0.90 |
| Nice | 1582.4 | 63.4% | 23.3% | 51.8% | 1.97–0.81 |
| Le Havre | 1580.1 | 63.7% | 23.2% | 52.1% | 1.98–0.80 |
| Angers | 1547.5 | 67.5% | 21.8% | 56.0% | 2.06–0.72 |
| Troyes | 1521.1 | 70.4% | 20.6% | 59.2% | 2.13–0.65 |
| Le Mans | 1492.4 | 73.5% | 19.1% | 62.6% | 2.20–0.58 |
Paris SG
Lille
Lyon
Monaco
Marseille
Rennes
Toulouse
Paris FC
Brest
Nice
Le Havre
Angers
Troyes
Le MansElo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →