Marseille
Ligue 1 · forecast 6th of 18 · updated Jul 21, 2026
Elo 1716.7 · title 0.2% · top 4 32.1% · relegation 0.4% · expected points 53 — 5,000 simulated seasons
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2026-27 fixtures · model odds
Monaco
The squad's spine
2026-27 squad · API-Football
P. Aubameyang
A. Gouiri
M. Greenwood
H. Abdelli
A. Gomes
J. de Lange
2026-27, opponent by opponent
Full Ligue 1 table →| Opponent | Elo | Win at home | Draw | Win away | xG (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris SG | 1967.9 | 15.6% | 24.6% | 8.7% | 0.88–1.90 |
| Lens | 1767 | 35.6% | 28.5% | 25.1% | 1.39–1.39 |
| Lille | 1743.7 | 38.2% | 28.4% | 27.5% | 1.45–1.34 |
| Lyon | 1731.6 | 39.7% | 28.4% | 28.7% | 1.48–1.31 |
| Monaco | 1717.5 | 41.3% | 28.3% | 30.3% | 1.51–1.27 |
| Rennes | 1716.1 | 41.5% | 28.3% | 30.4% | 1.51–1.27 |
| Strasbourg | 1710.8 | 42.1% | 28.2% | 31.0% | 1.53–1.25 |
| Toulouse | 1652.3 | 49.1% | 27.2% | 37.5% | 1.67–1.11 |
| Lorient | 1639.1 | 50.7% | 26.9% | 39.1% | 1.71–1.07 |
| Paris FC | 1629.3 | 51.9% | 26.7% | 40.2% | 1.73–1.05 |
| Auxerre | 1624.1 | 52.5% | 26.5% | 40.8% | 1.74–1.04 |
| Brest | 1620.8 | 52.9% | 26.4% | 41.2% | 1.75–1.03 |
| Nice | 1582.4 | 57.5% | 25.3% | 45.8% | 1.85–0.93 |
| Le Havre | 1580.1 | 57.8% | 25.2% | 46.0% | 1.85–0.93 |
| Angers | 1547.5 | 61.6% | 24.0% | 50.0% | 1.94–0.85 |
| Troyes | 1521.1 | 64.7% | 22.9% | 53.1% | 2.00–0.78 |
| Le Mans | 1492.4 | 68.0% | 21.6% | 56.6% | 2.07–0.71 |
Paris SG
Lens
Lille
Lyon
Rennes
Toulouse
Lorient
Auxerre
Brest
Nice
Le Havre
Angers
Troyes
Le MansElo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →