Paris SG
Ligue 1 · forecast 1st of 18 · updated Jul 21, 2026
Elo 1967.9 · title 97.2% · top 4 >99% · relegation — · expected points 81 — 5,000 simulated seasons
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2026-27 fixtures · model odds
Lille
The squad's spine
2026-27 squad · API-Football
B. Barcola
O. Dembélé
D. Doué
Pedro Fernández
Lee Kang-In
L. Chevalier
2026-27, opponent by opponent
Full Ligue 1 table →| Opponent | Elo | Win at home | Draw | Win away | xG (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 1767 | 65.3% | 22.7% | 53.8% | 2.01–0.77 |
| Lille | 1743.7 | 68.0% | 21.6% | 56.6% | 2.07–0.71 |
| Lyon | 1731.6 | 69.3% | 21.0% | 58.0% | 2.10–0.68 |
| Monaco | 1717.5 | 70.9% | 20.3% | 59.7% | 2.14–0.64 |
| Marseille | 1716.7 | 71.0% | 20.3% | 59.8% | 2.14–0.64 |
| Rennes | 1716.1 | 71.1% | 20.3% | 59.9% | 2.14–0.64 |
| Strasbourg | 1710.8 | 71.6% | 20.0% | 60.5% | 2.16–0.63 |
| Toulouse | 1652.3 | 77.8% | 17.0% | 67.3% | 2.30–0.48 |
| Lorient | 1639.1 | 79.1% | 16.2% | 68.8% | 2.33–0.45 |
| Paris FC | 1629.3 | 80.1% | 15.7% | 69.9% | 2.36–0.42 |
| Auxerre | 1624.1 | 80.6% | 15.4% | 70.5% | 2.37–0.41 |
| Brest | 1620.8 | 80.9% | 15.2% | 70.8% | 2.38–0.40 |
| Nice | 1582.4 | 84.4% | 13.1% | 75.0% | 2.48–0.31 |
| Le Havre | 1580.1 | 84.6% | 12.9% | 75.2% | 2.48–0.30 |
| Angers | 1547.5 | 85.6% | 12.2% | 78.5% | 2.56–0.30 |
| Troyes | 1521.1 | 86.3% | 11.6% | 81.1% | 2.63–0.30 |
| Le Mans | 1492.4 | 87.1% | 11.0% | 83.8% | 2.70–0.30 |
Lens
Lyon
Marseille
Strasbourg
Toulouse
Lorient
Paris FC
Auxerre
Brest
Nice
Le Havre
Angers
Troyes
Le MansElo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →