Toulouse
Ligue 1 · forecast 9th of 18 · updated Jul 21, 2026
Elo 1652.3 · title — · top 4 7.7% · relegation 5.3% · expected points 46 — 5,000 simulated seasons
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2026-27 fixtures · model odds
Brest
The squad's spine
2026-27 squad · API-Football
Y. Azizi
Emersonn
E. Faty
C. Cásseres
P. Diop
K. Haug
2026-27, opponent by opponent
Full Ligue 1 table →| Opponent | Elo | Win at home | Draw | Win away | xG (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris SG | 1967.9 | 10.8% | 21.9% | 5.2% | 0.72–2.06 |
| Lens | 1767 | 28.5% | 28.1% | 19.0% | 1.23–1.56 |
| Lille | 1743.7 | 31.0% | 28.3% | 21.1% | 1.28–1.50 |
| Lyon | 1731.6 | 32.3% | 28.4% | 22.2% | 1.31–1.47 |
| Monaco | 1717.5 | 33.9% | 28.5% | 23.6% | 1.35–1.43 |
| Marseille | 1716.7 | 34.0% | 28.5% | 23.7% | 1.35–1.43 |
| Rennes | 1716.1 | 34.1% | 28.5% | 23.7% | 1.35–1.43 |
| Strasbourg | 1710.8 | 34.6% | 28.5% | 24.3% | 1.37–1.42 |
| Lorient | 1639.1 | 43.0% | 28.1% | 31.8% | 1.55–1.24 |
| Paris FC | 1629.3 | 44.1% | 28.0% | 32.9% | 1.57–1.21 |
| Auxerre | 1624.1 | 44.7% | 27.9% | 33.4% | 1.58–1.20 |
| Brest | 1620.8 | 45.1% | 27.9% | 33.8% | 1.59–1.19 |
| Nice | 1582.4 | 49.7% | 27.1% | 38.2% | 1.69–1.09 |
| Le Havre | 1580.1 | 50.0% | 27.0% | 38.4% | 1.69–1.09 |
| Angers | 1547.5 | 54.0% | 26.2% | 42.3% | 1.77–1.01 |
| Troyes | 1521.1 | 57.1% | 25.4% | 45.4% | 1.84–0.94 |
| Le Mans | 1492.4 | 60.5% | 24.3% | 48.8% | 1.91–0.87 |
Paris SG
Lens
Monaco
Marseille
Rennes
Strasbourg
Lorient
Paris FC
Auxerre
Nice
Le Havre
Angers
Troyes
Le MansElo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →