Lyon
Ligue 1 · forecast 4th of 18 · updated Jul 21, 2026
Elo 1731.6 · title 0.4% · top 4 40.7% · relegation 0.3% · expected points 55 — 5,000 simulated seasons
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2026-27 fixtures · model odds
Toulouse
The squad's spine
2026-27 squad · API-Football
Endrick
M. Fofana
R. Himbert
R. Ghezzal
T. Goncalves
M. Da Silva
2026-27, opponent by opponent
Full Ligue 1 table →| Opponent | Elo | Win at home | Draw | Win away | xG (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris SG | 1967.9 | 16.9% | 25.1% | 9.6% | 0.92–1.86 |
| Lens | 1767 | 37.3% | 28.5% | 26.6% | 1.42–1.36 |
| Lille | 1743.7 | 40.0% | 28.4% | 29.0% | 1.48–1.30 |
| Monaco | 1717.5 | 43.1% | 28.1% | 31.9% | 1.55–1.23 |
| Marseille | 1716.7 | 43.2% | 28.1% | 32.0% | 1.55–1.23 |
| Rennes | 1716.1 | 43.2% | 28.1% | 32.0% | 1.55–1.23 |
| Strasbourg | 1710.8 | 43.9% | 28.0% | 32.6% | 1.56–1.22 |
| Toulouse | 1652.3 | 50.9% | 26.9% | 39.3% | 1.71–1.07 |
| Lorient | 1639.1 | 52.5% | 26.5% | 40.8% | 1.74–1.04 |
| Paris FC | 1629.3 | 53.6% | 26.3% | 42.0% | 1.77–1.01 |
| Auxerre | 1624.1 | 54.3% | 26.1% | 42.6% | 1.78–1.00 |
| Brest | 1620.8 | 54.7% | 26.0% | 43.0% | 1.79–0.99 |
| Nice | 1582.4 | 59.3% | 24.7% | 47.6% | 1.89–0.90 |
| Le Havre | 1580.1 | 59.5% | 24.6% | 47.8% | 1.89–0.89 |
| Angers | 1547.5 | 63.4% | 23.4% | 51.8% | 1.97–0.81 |
| Troyes | 1521.1 | 66.4% | 22.2% | 54.9% | 2.04–0.74 |
| Le Mans | 1492.4 | 69.7% | 20.9% | 58.4% | 2.11–0.67 |
Paris SG
Lens
Lille
Monaco
Marseille
Rennes
Strasbourg
Lorient
Paris FC
Brest
Nice
Angers
Troyes
Le MansElo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →