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Rayo Vallecano
La Liga · forecast 6th of 20 · updated Jul 21, 2026
Elo 1707.3 · title — · top 4 12.1% · relegation 1.6% · expected points 55 — 5,000 simulated seasons
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2026-27, opponent by opponent
Full La Liga table →| Opponent | Elo | Win at home | Draw | Win away | xG (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 1951.6 | 16.2% | 24.8% | 9.1% | 0.90–1.88 |
| Real Madrid | 1922.9 | 18.7% | 25.8% | 11.0% | 0.97–1.81 |
| Atletico | 1827.7 | 27.9% | 28.0% | 18.5% | 1.21–1.57 |
| Villarreal | 1759.3 | 35.4% | 28.5% | 24.9% | 1.38–1.40 |
| Betis | 1747.1 | 36.8% | 28.5% | 26.2% | 1.41–1.37 |
| Celta | 1700.8 | 42.2% | 28.2% | 31.0% | 1.53–1.25 |
| Valencia | 1697.4 | 42.6% | 28.2% | 31.4% | 1.54–1.24 |
| Bilbao | 1677.9 | 44.9% | 27.9% | 33.6% | 1.59–1.20 |
| Sociedad | 1669.5 | 45.9% | 27.7% | 34.5% | 1.61–1.17 |
| Getafe | 1664.1 | 46.5% | 27.7% | 35.1% | 1.62–1.16 |
| Osasuna | 1650.3 | 48.2% | 27.4% | 36.7% | 1.66–1.13 |
| Levante | 1638.7 | 49.6% | 27.1% | 38.0% | 1.68–1.10 |
| Alaves | 1635 | 50.0% | 27.0% | 38.5% | 1.69–1.09 |
| Espanyol | 1629.5 | 50.7% | 26.9% | 39.1% | 1.71–1.07 |
| Sevilla | 1625.9 | 51.1% | 26.8% | 39.5% | 1.72–1.07 |
| Elche | 1623.4 | 51.4% | 26.8% | 39.8% | 1.72–1.06 |
| Santander | 1581.9 | 56.4% | 25.6% | 44.7% | 1.83–0.96 |
| Malaga | 1568.6 | 58.0% | 25.1% | 46.3% | 1.86–0.92 |
| Depor | 1546.3 | 60.7% | 24.3% | 49.0% | 1.92–0.87 |
Real Madrid
Atletico
Villarreal
Betis
Celta
Valencia
Bilbao
Sociedad
Getafe
Osasuna
Levante
Espanyol
Elche
Santander
Malaga
DeporElo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →