Atletico
La Liga · forecast 3rd of 20 · updated Jul 21, 2026
Elo 1827.7 · title 3.5% · top 4 82.6% · relegation — · expected points 71 — 5,000 simulated seasons
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2026-27 fixtures · model odds
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2026-27 squad · API-Football
T. Almada
J. Álvarez
Álex Baena
Pablo Barrios
J. Cardoso
Salvador Esquivel
2026-27, opponent by opponent
Full La Liga table →| Opponent | Elo | Win at home | Draw | Win away | xG (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 1951.6 | 27.5% | 27.9% | 18.2% | 1.20–1.58 |
| Real Madrid | 1922.9 | 30.6% | 28.3% | 20.7% | 1.27–1.51 |
| Villarreal | 1759.3 | 49.6% | 27.1% | 38.0% | 1.68–1.10 |
| Betis | 1747.1 | 51.0% | 26.8% | 39.4% | 1.71–1.07 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1707.3 | 55.8% | 25.7% | 44.1% | 1.81–0.97 |
| Celta | 1700.8 | 56.6% | 25.5% | 44.9% | 1.83–0.95 |
| Valencia | 1697.4 | 57.0% | 25.4% | 45.3% | 1.84–0.94 |
| Bilbao | 1677.9 | 59.3% | 24.7% | 47.6% | 1.89–0.89 |
| Sociedad | 1669.5 | 60.3% | 24.4% | 48.6% | 1.91–0.87 |
| Getafe | 1664.1 | 61.0% | 24.2% | 49.3% | 1.92–0.86 |
| Osasuna | 1650.3 | 62.6% | 23.6% | 51.0% | 1.96–0.83 |
| Levante | 1638.7 | 63.9% | 23.2% | 52.3% | 1.99–0.80 |
| Alaves | 1635 | 64.4% | 23.0% | 52.8% | 1.99–0.79 |
| Espanyol | 1629.5 | 65.0% | 22.8% | 53.5% | 2.01–0.77 |
| Sevilla | 1625.9 | 65.4% | 22.6% | 53.9% | 2.02–0.76 |
| Elche | 1623.4 | 65.7% | 22.5% | 54.2% | 2.02–0.76 |
| Santander | 1581.9 | 70.4% | 20.6% | 59.2% | 2.13–0.65 |
| Malaga | 1568.6 | 71.9% | 19.9% | 60.7% | 2.16–0.62 |
| Depor | 1546.3 | 74.3% | 18.8% | 63.4% | 2.22–0.57 |
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Betis
Rayo Vallecano
Celta
Valencia
Bilbao
Sociedad
Getafe
Osasuna
Levante
Alaves
Espanyol
Elche
Santander
DeporElo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →