RB Leipzig vs Hamburg prediction — 2026-09-12

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 3 · 2026-09-12 13:30 UTC · Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

RB LeipzigTeam strength 1761.9 · projected league finish #5

MOST LIKELY RESULT

RB Leipzig

single most likely score: 1–1 (11.6%)

HamburgTeam strength 1602.1 · projected league finish #14

RB Leipzig wins 60.5%Draw — neither team wins 24.3%Hamburg wins 15.1%Average simulated goals 1.91–0.87

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does RB Leipzig have the highest number? RB Leipzig currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for RB Leipzig playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.91for RB Leipzig and 0.87 for Hamburg. That makes RB Leipzig the highest of the three result estimates at 60.5%. For the full league season, RB Leipzig is projected to earn about 57points and Hamburg about 39. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives RB Leipzig a 60.5% chance of beating Hamburg at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-09-12, with 24.3% for the draw and 15.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (11.6%), with average simulated goals of 1.91–0.87; the chance of both teams scoring is 50.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.5	4.0	2.3	0.7	0.1	0.0
1	10.5	11.6	4.5	1.3	0.3	0.1
2	11.3	9.8	4.3	1.2	0.3	0.1
3	7.2	6.3	2.7	0.8	0.2	0.0
4	3.5	3.0	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.9	1.6	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 11.6%2–0 11.3%1–0 10.5%2–1 9.8%0–0 7.5%3–0 7.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		50.8%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
RB Leipzig avoids defeat		84.9%
Hamburg avoids defeat		39.5%
RB Leipzig allows no goals		41.9%
Hamburg allows no goals		14.8%