Home › Predictions › Hamburg vs Mainz
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 2 · 2026-09-05 13:30 UTC · Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Hamburg
MainzThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Mainz have the highest number? Mainz currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Hamburg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.34for Hamburg and 1.44 for Mainz. That makes Mainz the highest of the three result estimates at 38.2%. For the full league season, Hamburg is projected to earn about 39points and Mainz about 47. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Hamburg a 33.4% chance of beating Mainz at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-09-05, with 28.5% for the draw and 38.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.34–1.44; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 13.5 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Hamburg avoids defeat | 61.8% | |
| Mainz avoids defeat | 66.6% | |
| Hamburg allows no goals | 23.6% | |
| Mainz allows no goals | 26.2% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
