Roma
Serie A · forecast 2nd of 20 · updated Jul 21, 2026
Elo 1793.5 · title 9.3% · top 4 62.4% · relegation — · expected points 68 — 5,000 simulated seasons
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2026-27 fixtures · model odds
Lecce
The squad's spine
2026-27 squad · API-Football
A. Arena
A. Dovbyk
P. Dybala
M. Bah
B. Cristante
G. De Marzi
2026-27, opponent by opponent
Full Serie A table →| Opponent | Elo | Win at home | Draw | Win away | xG (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 1888.6 | 30.6% | 28.3% | 20.8% | 1.27–1.51 |
| Napoli | 1780.3 | 43.0% | 28.1% | 31.8% | 1.55–1.24 |
| Juventus | 1772.3 | 43.9% | 28.0% | 32.7% | 1.57–1.22 |
| Atalanta | 1763.5 | 45.0% | 27.9% | 33.6% | 1.59–1.19 |
| Como | 1760 | 45.4% | 27.8% | 34.0% | 1.60–1.19 |
| Milan | 1750 | 46.6% | 27.6% | 35.2% | 1.62–1.16 |
| Lazio | 1703.2 | 52.2% | 26.6% | 40.6% | 1.74–1.04 |
| Bologna | 1701.3 | 52.4% | 26.5% | 40.8% | 1.74–1.04 |
| Fiorentina | 1670.2 | 56.2% | 25.6% | 44.5% | 1.82–0.96 |
| Udinese | 1645.9 | 59.1% | 24.8% | 47.4% | 1.88–0.90 |
| Torino | 1624.1 | 61.7% | 24.0% | 50.0% | 1.94–0.85 |
| Sassuolo | 1622 | 61.9% | 23.9% | 50.2% | 1.94–0.84 |
| Genoa | 1618.2 | 62.3% | 23.7% | 50.7% | 1.95–0.83 |
| Parma | 1599.9 | 64.5% | 23.0% | 52.9% | 2.00–0.78 |
| Venezia | 1598.8 | 64.6% | 22.9% | 53.0% | 2.00–0.78 |
| Cagliari | 1594.3 | 65.1% | 22.7% | 53.6% | 2.01–0.77 |
| Lecce | 1568 | 68.1% | 21.5% | 56.7% | 2.08–0.71 |
| Frosinone | 1564.7 | 68.5% | 21.4% | 57.1% | 2.08–0.70 |
| Monza | 1544 | 70.8% | 20.4% | 59.6% | 2.14–0.65 |
Inter
Napoli
Juventus
Como
Milan
Lazio
Bologna
Udinese
Torino
Sassuolo
Genoa
Parma
Venezia
Cagliari
Frosinone
MonzaElo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →