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Serie A · forecast 6th of 20 · updated Jul 21, 2026
Elo 1760 · title 3.4% · top 4 38.5% · relegation 0.1% · expected points 63 — 5,000 simulated seasons
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2026-27 fixtures · model odds
Udinese
Napoli
GenoaThe squad's spine
2026-27 squad · API-Football
J. Addai
Assane Diao
T. Douvikas
M. Baturina
M. Caqueret
J. Butez
2026-27, opponent by opponent
Full Serie A table →| Opponent | Elo | Win at home | Draw | Win away | xG (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 1888.6 | 27.0% | 27.9% | 17.7% | 1.19–1.59 |
| Roma | 1793.5 | 37.5% | 28.5% | 26.8% | 1.43–1.35 |
| Napoli | 1780.3 | 39.0% | 28.4% | 28.2% | 1.46–1.32 |
| Juventus | 1772.3 | 40.0% | 28.4% | 29.0% | 1.48–1.30 |
| Atalanta | 1763.5 | 41.0% | 28.3% | 30.0% | 1.50–1.28 |
| Milan | 1750 | 42.6% | 28.1% | 31.4% | 1.54–1.24 |
| Lazio | 1703.2 | 48.2% | 27.4% | 36.7% | 1.65–1.13 |
| Bologna | 1701.3 | 48.4% | 27.4% | 36.9% | 1.66–1.12 |
| Fiorentina | 1670.2 | 52.1% | 26.6% | 40.5% | 1.74–1.04 |
| Udinese | 1645.9 | 55.1% | 25.9% | 43.4% | 1.80–0.98 |
| Torino | 1624.1 | 57.7% | 25.2% | 46.0% | 1.85–0.93 |
| Sassuolo | 1622 | 57.9% | 25.1% | 46.2% | 1.86–0.92 |
| Genoa | 1618.2 | 58.4% | 25.0% | 46.7% | 1.87–0.91 |
| Parma | 1599.9 | 60.6% | 24.3% | 48.9% | 1.91–0.87 |
| Venezia | 1598.8 | 60.7% | 24.3% | 49.0% | 1.92–0.87 |
| Cagliari | 1594.3 | 61.2% | 24.1% | 49.5% | 1.93–0.85 |
| Lecce | 1568 | 64.3% | 23.0% | 52.7% | 1.99–0.79 |
| Frosinone | 1564.7 | 64.7% | 22.9% | 53.1% | 2.00–0.78 |
| Monza | 1544 | 67.1% | 22.0% | 55.6% | 2.05–0.73 |
Inter
Roma
Juventus
Atalanta
Milan
Lazio
Bologna
Fiorentina
Torino
Sassuolo
Parma
Venezia
Cagliari
Lecce
Frosinone
MonzaElo difference → expected goals → Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. Home advantage +65 Elo. Method →