Home › Predictions › Monaco vs Marseille
Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 2 · 2026-08-30 18:45 UTC · Stade Louis II, Monaco
Monaco
MarseilleThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Monaco have the highest number? Monaco currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Monaco playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.51for Monaco and 1.27 for Marseille. That makes Monaco the highest of the three result estimates at 41.5%. For the full league season, Monaco is projected to earn about 53points and Marseille about 53. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Monaco a 41.5% chance of beating Marseille at home in the Ligue 1 on 2026-08-30, with 28.2% for the draw and 30.3% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.4%), with average simulated goals of 1.51–1.27; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Monaco avoids defeat | 69.7% | |
| Marseille avoids defeat | 58.5% | |
| Monaco allows no goals | 28.2% | |
| Marseille allows no goals | 22.0% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
