Marseille vs Strasbourg prediction — 2026-08-21

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 1 · 2026-08-21 18:45 UTC

MarseilleTeam strength 1716.7 · projected league finish #6

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Marseille

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.4%)

StrasbourgTeam strength 1710.8 · projected league finish #8

Marseille wins 42.1%Draw — neither team wins 28.2%Strasbourg wins 29.7%Average simulated goals 1.53–1.25

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Marseille have the highest number? Marseille currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Marseille playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.53for Marseille and 1.25 for Strasbourg. That makes Marseille the highest of the three result estimates at 42.1%. For the full league season, Marseille is projected to earn about 53points and Strasbourg about 52. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Marseille a 42.1% chance of beating Strasbourg at home in the Ligue 1 on 2026-08-21, with 28.2% for the draw and 29.7% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.4%), with average simulated goals of 1.53–1.25; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.5% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	6.2	4.9	2.0	0.6	0.2
1	7.9	13.4	7.4	3.1	1.0	0.3
2	7.2	9.1	5.7	2.4	0.7	0.2
3	3.7	4.6	2.9	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.4	1.8	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.4%2–1 9.1%1–0 7.9%0–0 7.7%1–2 7.4%2–0 7.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.5%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Marseille avoids defeat		70.3%
Strasbourg avoids defeat		57.9%
Marseille allows no goals		28.5%
Strasbourg allows no goals		21.7%