Home › Predictions › Toulouse vs Lille
Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3 · 2026-09-05 15:00 UTC · Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Toulouse
LilleThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Lille have the highest number? Lille currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Toulouse playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.28for Toulouse and 1.50 for Lille. That makes Lille the highest of the three result estimates at 40.7%. For the full league season, Toulouse is projected to earn about 46points and Lille about 56. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Toulouse a 31.0% chance of beating Lille at home in the Ligue 1 on 2026-09-05, with 28.3% for the draw and 40.7% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.28–1.50; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Toulouse avoids defeat | 59.3% | |
| Lille avoids defeat | 69.0% | |
| Toulouse allows no goals | 22.4% | |
| Lille allows no goals | 27.7% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
