Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves prediction — 2026-08-23

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La Liga · Regular Season - 2 · 2026-08-23 15:00 UTC · Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo VallecanoTeam strength 1707.3 · projected league finish #6

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Rayo Vallecano

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.9%)

AlavesTeam strength 1635 · projected league finish #14

Rayo Vallecano wins 50.0%Draw — neither team wins 27.0%Alaves wins 22.9%Average simulated goals 1.69–1.09

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Rayo Vallecano have the highest number? Rayo Vallecano currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Rayo Vallecano playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.69for Rayo Vallecano and 1.09 for Alaves. That makes Rayo Vallecano the highest of the three result estimates at 50.0%. For the full league season, Rayo Vallecano is projected to earn about 55points and Alaves about 45. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Rayo Vallecano a 50.0% chance of beating Alaves at home in the La Liga on 2026-08-23, with 27.0% for the draw and 22.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.9%), with average simulated goals of 1.69–1.09; the chance of both teams scoring is 55.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.3	3.7	1.3	0.4	0.1
1	9.0	12.9	6.2	2.3	0.6	0.2
2	8.9	9.7	5.3	1.9	0.5	0.1
3	5.0	5.5	3.0	1.1	0.3	0.1
4	2.1	2.3	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	1.0	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.9%2–1 9.7%1–0 9.0%2–0 8.9%0–0 7.7%1–2 6.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		55.6%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Rayo Vallecano avoids defeat		77.1%
Alaves avoids defeat		50.0%
Rayo Vallecano allows no goals		33.7%
Alaves allows no goals		18.4%