Lyon vs Le Havre prediction — 2026-08-29

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 2 · 2026-08-29 18:45 UTC · Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon

LyonTeam strength 1731.6 · projected league finish #4

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Lyon

single most likely score: 1–1 (11.8%)

Le HavreTeam strength 1580.1 · projected league finish #15

Lyon wins 59.5%Draw — neither team wins 24.6%Le Havre wins 15.8%Average simulated goals 1.89–0.89

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Lyon have the highest number? Lyon currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Lyon playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.89for Lyon and 0.89 for Le Havre. That makes Lyon the highest of the three result estimates at 59.5%. For the full league season, Lyon is projected to earn about 55points and Le Havre about 37. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Lyon a 59.5% chance of beating Le Havre at home in the Ligue 1 on 2026-08-29, with 24.6% for the draw and 15.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (11.8%), with average simulated goals of 1.89–0.89; the chance of both teams scoring is 51.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.2	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.0
1	10.4	11.8	4.6	1.4	0.3	0.1
2	11.1	9.9	4.4	1.3	0.3	0.1
3	7.0	6.2	2.8	0.8	0.2	0.0
4	3.3	2.9	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.8	1.6	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 11.8%2–0 11.1%1–0 10.4%2–1 9.9%0–0 7.6%3–0 7.0%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		51.4%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Lyon avoids defeat		84.2%
Le Havre avoids defeat		40.5%
Lyon allows no goals		41.1%
Le Havre allows no goals		15.1%