Roma vs Fiorentina prediction — 2026-08-24

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Serie A · Regular Season - 1 · 2026-08-24 18:45 UTC · Stadio Olimpico, Rome

RomaTeam strength 1793.5 · projected league finish #2

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Roma

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.2%)

FiorentinaTeam strength 1670.2 · projected league finish #10

Roma wins 56.2%Draw — neither team wins 25.6%Fiorentina wins 18.2%Average simulated goals 1.82–0.96

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Roma have the highest number? Roma currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Roma playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.82for Roma and 0.96 for Fiorentina. That makes Roma the highest of the three result estimates at 56.2%. For the full league season, Roma is projected to earn about 68points and Fiorentina about 51. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Roma a 56.2% chance of beating Fiorentina at home in the Serie A on 2026-08-24, with 25.6% for the draw and 18.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.2%), with average simulated goals of 1.82–0.96; the chance of both teams scoring is 53.1% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.5	2.9	0.9	0.2	0.1
1	9.9	12.2	5.2	1.7	0.4	0.1
2	10.3	9.9	4.7	1.5	0.4	0.1
3	6.2	6.0	2.9	0.9	0.2	0.1
4	2.8	2.7	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.4	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.2%2–0 10.3%1–0 9.9%2–1 9.9%0–0 7.6%3–0 6.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		53.1%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Roma avoids defeat		81.8%
Fiorentina avoids defeat		43.8%
Roma allows no goals		38.3%
Fiorentina allows no goals		16.2%