Villarreal vs Santander prediction — 2027-01-31

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La Liga · Regular Season - 22 · 2027-01-31 16:00 UTC · Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal

VillarrealTeam strength 1759.3 · projected league finish #4

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Villarreal

single most likely score: 2–0 (11.9%)

SantanderTeam strength 1581.9 · projected league finish #18

Villarreal wins 62.6%Draw — neither team wins 23.6%Santander wins 13.8%Average simulated goals 1.96–0.83

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Villarreal have the highest number? Villarreal currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Villarreal playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.96for Villarreal and 0.83 for Santander. That makes Villarreal the highest of the three result estimates at 62.6%. For the full league season, Villarreal is projected to earn about 61points and Santander about 38. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Villarreal a 62.6% chance of beating Santander at home in the La Liga on 2027-01-31, with 23.6% for the draw and 13.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (11.9%), with average simulated goals of 1.96–0.83; the chance of both teams scoring is 49.5% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5	3.8	2.1	0.6	0.1
1	10.8	11.3	4.1	1.1	0.2
2	11.9	9.8	4.0	1.1	0.2
3	7.7	6.4	2.6	0.7	0.1
4	3.8	3.1	1.3	0.4	0.1
5+	2.1	1.8	0.7	0.2	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 11.9%1–1 11.3%1–0 10.8%2–1 9.8%3–0 7.7%0–0 7.5%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		49.5%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Villarreal avoids defeat		86.2%
Santander avoids defeat		37.4%
Villarreal allows no goals		43.8%
Santander allows no goals		14.1%