Villarreal vs Elche prediction — 2026-10-18

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La Liga · Regular Season - 9 · 2026-10-18 15:00 UTC · Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal

VillarrealTeam strength 1759.3 · projected league finish #4

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Villarreal

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.0%)

ElcheTeam strength 1623.4 · projected league finish #17

Villarreal wins 57.7%Draw — neither team wins 25.2%Elche wins 17.1%Average simulated goals 1.85–0.93

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Villarreal have the highest number? Villarreal currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Villarreal playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.85for Villarreal and 0.93 for Elche. That makes Villarreal the highest of the three result estimates at 57.7%. For the full league season, Villarreal is projected to earn about 61points and Elche about 44. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Villarreal a 57.7% chance of beating Elche at home in the La Liga on 2026-10-18, with 25.2% for the draw and 17.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.0%), with average simulated goals of 1.85–0.93; the chance of both teams scoring is 52.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.4	2.7	0.8	0.2	0.0
1	10.1	12.0	5.0	1.5	0.4	0.1
2	10.6	9.9	4.6	1.4	0.3	0.1
3	6.6	6.1	2.8	0.9	0.2	0.0
4	3.0	2.8	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.6	1.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.0%2–0 10.6%1–0 10.1%2–1 9.9%0–0 7.6%3–0 6.6%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		52.4%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Villarreal avoids defeat		82.9%
Elche avoids defeat		42.3%
Villarreal allows no goals		39.5%
Elche allows no goals		15.7%