Villarreal vs Depor prediction — 2026-09-06

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La Liga · Regular Season - 4 · 2026-09-06 15:00 UTC · Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal

VillarrealTeam strength 1759.3 · projected league finish #4

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Villarreal

single most likely score: 2–0 (13.0%)

DeporTeam strength 1546.3 · projected league finish #20

Villarreal wins 66.7%Draw — neither team wins 22.1%Depor wins 11.2%Average simulated goals 2.04–0.74

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Villarreal have the highest number? Villarreal currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Villarreal playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.04for Villarreal and 0.74 for Depor. That makes Villarreal the highest of the three result estimates at 66.7%. For the full league season, Villarreal is projected to earn about 61points and Depor about 34. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Villarreal a 66.7% chance of beating Depor at home in the La Liga on 2026-09-06, with 22.1% for the draw and 11.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (13.0%), with average simulated goals of 2.04–0.74; the chance of both teams scoring is 46.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4	3.4	1.7	0.4	0.1
1	11.5	10.5	3.4	0.8	0.2
2	13.0	9.5	3.5	0.9	0.2
3	8.8	6.5	2.4	0.6	0.1
4	4.5	3.3	1.2	0.3	0.1
5+	2.7	2.0	0.7	0.2	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 13.0%1–0 11.5%1–1 10.5%2–1 9.5%3–0 8.8%0–0 7.4%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		46.6%
2 or more total goals		77.8%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Villarreal avoids defeat		88.8%
Depor avoids defeat		33.3%
Villarreal allows no goals		47.9%
Depor allows no goals		12.9%