Villarreal vs Alaves prediction — 2027-01-17

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La Liga · Regular Season - 20 · 2027-01-17 16:00 UTC · Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal

VillarrealTeam strength 1759.3 · projected league finish #4

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Villarreal

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.2%)

AlavesTeam strength 1635 · projected league finish #14

Villarreal wins 56.3%Draw — neither team wins 25.6%Alaves wins 18.1%Average simulated goals 1.82–0.96

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Villarreal have the highest number? Villarreal currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Villarreal playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.82for Villarreal and 0.96 for Alaves. That makes Villarreal the highest of the three result estimates at 56.3%. For the full league season, Villarreal is projected to earn about 61points and Alaves about 45. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Villarreal a 56.3% chance of beating Alaves at home in the La Liga on 2027-01-17, with 25.6% for the draw and 18.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.2%), with average simulated goals of 1.82–0.96; the chance of both teams scoring is 53.1% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.5	2.8	0.9	0.2	0.0
1	9.9	12.2	5.2	1.7	0.4	0.1
2	10.3	9.9	4.7	1.5	0.4	0.1
3	6.3	6.0	2.9	0.9	0.2	0.0
4	2.9	2.7	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.5	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.2%2–0 10.3%1–0 9.9%2–1 9.9%0–0 7.6%3–0 6.3%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		53.1%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Villarreal avoids defeat		81.9%
Alaves avoids defeat		43.7%
Villarreal allows no goals		38.4%
Alaves allows no goals		16.2%