Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano prediction — 2027-04-21

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La Liga · Regular Season - 33 · 2027-04-21 15:00 UTC · Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

ValenciaTeam strength 1697.4 · projected league finish #8

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Valencia

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

Rayo VallecanoTeam strength 1707.3 · projected league finish #6

Valencia wins 40.2%Draw — neither team wins 28.3%Rayo Vallecano wins 31.4%Average simulated goals 1.49–1.29

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Valencia have the highest number? Rayo Vallecano currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Valencia playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.49for Valencia and 1.29 for Rayo Vallecano. That makes Valencia the highest of the three result estimates at 40.2%. For the full league season, Valencia is projected to earn about 53points and Rayo Vallecano about 55. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Valencia a 40.2% chance of beating Rayo Vallecano at home in the La Liga on 2027-04-21, with 28.3% for the draw and 31.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.49–1.29; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	6.5	5.2	2.2	0.7	0.2
1	7.7	13.5	7.7	3.3	1.1	0.4
2	6.9	8.9	5.7	2.5	0.8	0.3
3	3.4	4.4	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.3	1.6	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%2–1 8.9%0–0 7.7%1–2 7.7%1–0 7.7%2–0 6.9%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.7%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Valencia avoids defeat		68.6%
Rayo Vallecano avoids defeat		59.8%
Valencia allows no goals		27.4%
Rayo Vallecano allows no goals		22.6%