Home › Predictions › Valencia vs Bilbao
La Liga · Regular Season - 9 · 2026-10-18 15:00 UTC · Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
Valencia
BilbaoThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Valencia have the highest number? Valencia currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Valencia playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.56for Valencia and 1.22 for Bilbao. That makes Valencia the highest of the three result estimates at 43.7%. For the full league season, Valencia is projected to earn about 53points and Bilbao about 51. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Valencia a 43.7% chance of beating Bilbao at home in the La Liga on 2026-10-18, with 28.0% for the draw and 28.3% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.3%), with average simulated goals of 1.56–1.22; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.2% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Valencia avoids defeat | 71.7% | |
| Bilbao avoids defeat | 56.3% | |
| Valencia allows no goals | 29.5% | |
| Bilbao allows no goals | 21.0% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
