Union Berlin vs Werder prediction — 2027-05-08

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 32 · 2027-05-08 13:30 UTC

Union BerlinTeam strength 1619.4 · projected league finish #12

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Union Berlin

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.4%)

WerderTeam strength 1606 · projected league finish #13

Union Berlin wins 43.0%Draw — neither team wins 28.1%Werder wins 28.9%Average simulated goals 1.55–1.24

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Union Berlin have the highest number? Union Berlin currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Union Berlin playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.55for Union Berlin and 1.24 for Werder. That makes Union Berlin the highest of the three result estimates at 43.0%. For the full league season, Union Berlin is projected to earn about 40points and Werder about 39. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Union Berlin a 43.0% chance of beating Werder at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-05-08, with 28.1% for the draw and 28.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.4%), with average simulated goals of 1.55–1.24; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.3% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	6.1	4.7	1.9	0.6	0.2
1	8.0	13.4	7.3	3.0	0.9	0.3
2	7.4	9.1	5.6	2.3	0.7	0.2
3	3.8	4.7	2.9	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.5	1.8	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.4%2–1 9.1%1–0 8.0%0–0 7.7%2–0 7.4%1–2 7.3%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.3%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Union Berlin avoids defeat		71.1%
Werder avoids defeat		57.0%
Union Berlin allows no goals		29.1%
Werder allows no goals		21.3%