Union Berlin vs Schalke prediction — 2026-09-12

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 3 · 2026-09-12 13:30 UTC

Union BerlinTeam strength 1619.4 · projected league finish #12

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Union Berlin

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.6%)

SchalkeTeam strength 1519.7 · projected league finish #18

Union Berlin wins 53.3%Draw — neither team wins 26.3%Schalke wins 20.3%Average simulated goals 1.76–1.02

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Union Berlin have the highest number? Union Berlin currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Union Berlin playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.76for Union Berlin and 1.02 for Schalke. That makes Union Berlin the highest of the three result estimates at 53.3%. For the full league season, Union Berlin is projected to earn about 40points and Schalke about 30. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Union Berlin a 53.3% chance of beating Schalke at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-09-12, with 26.3% for the draw and 20.3% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.6%), with average simulated goals of 1.76–1.02; the chance of both teams scoring is 54.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.9	3.2	1.1	0.3	0.1
1	9.5	12.6	5.7	1.9	0.5	0.1
2	9.6	9.8	5.0	1.7	0.4	0.1
3	5.6	5.8	2.9	1.0	0.3	0.1
4	2.5	2.5	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.2	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.6%2–1 9.8%2–0 9.6%1–0 9.5%0–0 7.6%3–1 5.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		54.4%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Union Berlin avoids defeat		79.7%
Schalke avoids defeat		46.7%
Union Berlin allows no goals		36.1%
Schalke allows no goals		17.2%