Union Berlin vs Dortmund prediction — 2026-10-17

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6 · 2026-10-17 13:30 UTC

Union BerlinTeam strength 1619.4 · projected league finish #12

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Dortmund

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.3%)

DortmundTeam strength 1834.8 · projected league finish #2

Union Berlin wins 18.7%Draw — neither team wins 25.8%Dortmund wins 55.5%Average simulated goals 0.97–1.81

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Dortmund have the highest number? Dortmund currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Union Berlin playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.97for Union Berlin and 1.81 for Dortmund. That makes Dortmund the highest of the three result estimates at 55.5%. For the full league season, Union Berlin is projected to earn about 40points and Dortmund about 65. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Union Berlin a 18.7% chance of beating Dortmund at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-10-17, with 25.8% for the draw and 55.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.3%), with average simulated goals of 0.97–1.81; the chance of both teams scoring is 53.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	9.8	10.1	6.1	2.8	1.4
1	4.6	12.3	9.9	5.9	2.7	1.4
2	2.9	5.3	4.8	2.9	1.3	0.7
3	1.0	1.7	1.6	0.9	0.4	0.2
4	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.1
5+	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.3%0–2 10.1%1–2 9.9%0–1 9.8%0–0 7.6%0–3 6.1%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		53.4%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Union Berlin avoids defeat		44.5%
Dortmund avoids defeat		81.3%
Union Berlin allows no goals		16.4%
Dortmund allows no goals		37.8%