Toulouse vs Paris FC prediction — 2027-04-17

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 28 · 2027-04-17 15:00 UTC · Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

ToulouseTeam strength 1652.3 · projected league finish #9

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Toulouse

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.3%)

Paris FCTeam strength 1629.3 · projected league finish #11

Toulouse wins 44.1%Draw — neither team wins 28.0%Paris FC wins 27.9%Average simulated goals 1.57–1.21

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Toulouse have the highest number? Toulouse currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Toulouse playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.57for Toulouse and 1.21 for Paris FC. That makes Toulouse the highest of the three result estimates at 44.1%. For the full league season, Toulouse is projected to earn about 46points and Paris FC about 43. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Toulouse a 44.1% chance of beating Paris FC at home in the Ligue 1 on 2027-04-17, with 28.0% for the draw and 27.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.3%), with average simulated goals of 1.57–1.21; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.1% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	6.0	4.5	1.8	0.6	0.2
1	8.2	13.3	7.1	2.9	0.9	0.3
2	7.6	9.2	5.6	2.3	0.7	0.2
3	4.0	4.8	2.9	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.6	1.9	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.7	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.3%2–1 9.2%1–0 8.2%0–0 7.7%2–0 7.6%1–2 7.1%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.1%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Toulouse avoids defeat		72.1%
Paris FC avoids defeat		55.9%
Toulouse allows no goals		29.8%
Paris FC allows no goals		20.8%