Tottenham vs Man United prediction — 2027-05-23

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Premier League · Regular Season - 37 · 2027-05-23 14:00 UTC · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

TottenhamTeam strength 1777.3 · projected league finish #16

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Man United

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.2%)

Man UnitedTeam strength 1915.3 · projected league finish #4

Tottenham wins 26.1%Draw — neither team wins 27.7%Man United wins 46.2%Average simulated goals 1.17–1.61

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Man United have the highest number? Man United currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Tottenham playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.17for Tottenham and 1.61 for Man United. That makes Man United the highest of the three result estimates at 46.2%. For the full league season, Tottenham is projected to earn about 47points and Man United about 65. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Tottenham a 26.1% chance of beating Man United at home in the Premier League on 2027-05-23, with 27.7% for the draw and 46.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.2%), with average simulated goals of 1.17–1.61; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	8.5	8.1	4.3	1.8	0.8
1	5.7	13.2	9.4	5.1	2.0	0.9
2	4.2	6.8	5.5	3.0	1.2	0.5
3	1.6	2.7	2.1	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.5	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.1
5+	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.2%1–2 9.4%0–1 8.5%0–2 8.1%0–0 7.7%2–1 6.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		56.7%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Tottenham avoids defeat		53.8%
Man United avoids defeat		73.9%
Tottenham allows no goals		19.9%
Man United allows no goals		31.1%