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Premier League · Regular Season - 7 · 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Tottenham
CoventryThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Tottenham have the highest number? Tottenham currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Tottenham playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.80for Tottenham and 0.98 for Coventry. That makes Tottenham the highest of the three result estimates at 55.3%. For the full league season, Tottenham is projected to earn about 47points and Coventry about 33. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Tottenham a 55.3% chance of beating Coventry at home in the Premier League on 2026-10-17, with 25.9% for the draw and 18.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.4%), with average simulated goals of 1.80–0.98; the chance of both teams scoring is 53.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.0% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Tottenham avoids defeat | 81.1% | |
| Coventry avoids defeat | 44.7% | |
| Tottenham allows no goals | 37.6% | |
| Coventry allows no goals | 16.5% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
