Tottenham vs Bournemouth prediction — 2026-12-26

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Premier League · Regular Season - 17 · 2026-12-26 15:00 UTC · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

TottenhamTeam strength 1777.3 · projected league finish #16

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Bournemouth

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.4%)

BournemouthTeam strength 1872 · projected league finish #6

Tottenham wins 30.6%Draw — neither team wins 28.3%Bournemouth wins 41.1%Average simulated goals 1.28–1.51

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Bournemouth have the highest number? Bournemouth currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Tottenham playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.28for Tottenham and 1.51 for Bournemouth. That makes Bournemouth the highest of the three result estimates at 41.1%. For the full league season, Tottenham is projected to earn about 47points and Bournemouth about 59. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Tottenham a 30.6% chance of beating Bournemouth at home in the Premier League on 2026-12-26, with 28.3% for the draw and 41.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.4%), with average simulated goals of 1.28–1.51; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	7.8	7.0	3.5	1.3	0.5
1	6.4	13.4	9.0	4.5	1.7	0.7
2	5.0	7.6	5.7	2.9	1.1	0.4
3	2.1	3.2	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.4%1–2 9.0%0–1 7.8%0–0 7.7%2–1 7.6%0–2 7.0%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.6%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Tottenham avoids defeat		58.9%
Bournemouth avoids defeat		69.4%
Tottenham allows no goals		22.2%
Bournemouth allows no goals		27.9%