Sunderland vs Newcastle prediction — 2027-05-01

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Premier League · Regular Season - 34 · 2027-05-01 14:00 UTC · Stadium of Light, Sunderland

SunderlandTeam strength 1735.9 · projected league finish #17

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Newcastle

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.4%)

NewcastleTeam strength 1837.5 · projected league finish #8

Sunderland wins 29.9%Draw — neither team wins 28.2%Newcastle wins 41.9%Average simulated goals 1.26–1.52

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Newcastle have the highest number? Newcastle currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Sunderland playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.26for Sunderland and 1.52 for Newcastle. That makes Newcastle the highest of the three result estimates at 41.9%. For the full league season, Sunderland is projected to earn about 42points and Newcastle about 55. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Sunderland a 29.9% chance of beating Newcastle at home in the Premier League on 2027-05-01, with 28.2% for the draw and 41.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.4%), with average simulated goals of 1.26–1.52; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.5% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	7.9	7.2	3.6	1.4	0.6
1	6.3	13.4	9.0	4.6	1.7	0.7
2	4.9	7.5	5.7	2.9	1.1	0.4
3	2.1	3.1	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.6	1.0	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.4%1–2 9.0%0–1 7.9%0–0 7.7%2–1 7.5%0–2 7.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.5%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Sunderland avoids defeat		58.1%
Newcastle avoids defeat		70.1%
Sunderland allows no goals		21.8%
Newcastle allows no goals		28.4%