Sunderland vs Hull prediction — 2027-01-02

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Premier League · Regular Season - 19 · 2027-01-02 15:00 UTC · Stadium of Light, Sunderland

SunderlandTeam strength 1735.9 · projected league finish #17

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Sunderland

single most likely score: 2–0 (12.6%)

HullTeam strength 1532.9 · projected league finish #20

Sunderland wins 65.6%Draw — neither team wins 22.6%Hull wins 11.9%Average simulated goals 2.02–0.76

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Sunderland have the highest number? Sunderland currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Sunderland playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.02for Sunderland and 0.76 for Hull. That makes Sunderland the highest of the three result estimates at 65.6%. For the full league season, Sunderland is projected to earn about 42points and Hull about 19. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Sunderland a 65.6% chance of beating Hull at home in the Premier League on 2027-01-02, with 22.6% for the draw and 11.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (12.6%), with average simulated goals of 2.02–0.76; the chance of both teams scoring is 47.5% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4	3.5	1.8	0.5	0.1
1	11.3	10.8	3.6	0.9	0.2
2	12.6	9.6	3.7	0.9	0.2
3	8.5	6.5	2.5	0.6	0.1
4	4.3	3.3	1.2	0.3	0.1
5+	2.5	1.9	0.7	0.2	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 12.6%1–0 11.3%1–1 10.8%2–1 9.6%3–0 8.5%0–0 7.4%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		47.5%
2 or more total goals		77.8%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Sunderland avoids defeat		88.1%
Hull avoids defeat		34.4%
Sunderland allows no goals		46.7%
Hull allows no goals		13.3%